Virginia Senate: Why isn't Webb doing better?

The contest for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia remains one of the most closely-watched battles in the country. After enjoying a commanding lead over the summer, incumbent Sen. George Allen (R) has stumbled into a close race with challenger Jim Webb (D).

Just how close? The polls don't agree: yesterday's Gallup/USA Today shows Allen leading Webb by only three points (48% to 45%), well within the poll's 5% margin of error. That was a lot closer than the latest Reuters/Zogby poll (48% Allen, 37% Webb) or a Rasmussen poll from Monday (49% to 43% Allen).

With just a month to go, Allen seems to have the edge but not a lock: as recently as Wednesday analyst Charlie Cook looked at these numbers, and moved "VA Senate" from "lean Republican" to "TOSS UP."

Given the magnitude of Allen's mis-steps -- and growing anti-incumbent/Republican sentiment nation-wide -- you might be wondering: why isn't Webb doing better?

Bob Moser, an excellent political reporter for The Nation magazine, has written an illuminating piece on Webb and the Virginia race. He notes how Webb, with his deep foreign policy experience (his son is enlisted) and hard-nosed, white working-class sensibility, is not only beating the GOP at its own game -- he's also "showing how a Democrat can combine foreign policy 'realism' with an old-fashioned dose of economic populism to win in the South again."

But Moser takes a closer look at two issues that have dogged the Webb campaign: the fact that he's not a polished politician, and what some see as a race blindspot. Combined with the usual explanations -- the incumbent advantage, Allen's bigger pot of money -- Webb's campaign will continue to be an uphill battle.

Watching Webb campaign, it's clear he's not a made-for-TV candidate. But there's also a question if he has a politician's killer instinct. For example, after the September Allen/Webb debate in which Allen lost his cool after a reporter asked him if he had Jewish heritage, Webb and his campaign didn't seem to know how to respond:

Campaign-watchers viewed Webb's strange silence as another sign of his stubborn resistance to behaving like a proper politician. "The 'macaca' fallout softened up George Allen for the kill," says Mark Rozell. "Webb doesn't seem to know how to plunge the knife in."

For some, this is part of Webb's appeal:

Webb's laconic delivery, far from a liability, testifies in shorthand that he's no slick politician. Which makes him a far cry from his opponent, says Sam Church, UMW local's political coordinator. "Allen doesn't relate to working people--has he ever had a job?"

But it's also caused some to wonder if he's ready for prime time.

Then there's the issue of race. Given Allen's "macaca moment" and other episodes, this should be Webb's ace in the hole. But as recently as 2000, Webb was bashing affirmative action (a position he's since retreated from) and in 1990, he addressed Confederate descendants at the National Confederate Memorial, asserting that Southern soldiers believed they were fighting for "sovereignty rather than slavery." It has added up to a problem:

As a result, says civil rights activist and Virginia Commonwealth University professor W. Avon Drake, potential black voters don't know what to make of Webb. "He went a little too far in changing his position," Drake says. "Blacks can sense when someone is genuine."[...]

"I look at the race and I see two Republicans running for the same job," says longtime State Senator Benjamin Lambert of Richmond, who stunned his colleagues with a late-August endorsement of Allen, who had promised to help Lambert win more funding for traditionally black colleges.

Lambert's endorsement will carry little weight statewide, especially given the avalanche of racial embarrassments for Allen's campaign. In a Mason-Dixon poll taken in early September, just 5 percent of black Virginians said they would support Allen this time. But only 73 percent said they'd vote for Webb -- well below the usual mark for Democrats running statewide. Webb's campaign has yet to be endorsed by the state's most powerful black Democrat, former governor and current Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder, and it's faced criticism all along for failing to reach out aggressively to black leaders and voters.

In a tight race, anything that would depress turnout of the Democrat-loyal African-American base could prove fatal.