MTSU Poll: Tennessee shifting blue?

The Middle Tennessee State University Survey Group semi-annual statewide poll is widely recognized and frequently quoted by the media, public officials, and political campaigns.

Their latest Spring 2007 poll found some interesting results that suggest growing dissatisfaction among Tennesseans regarding President Bush and the GOP, particularly with respect to Iraq and the federal response to Katrina:

Bush's approval rating down, fewer say they are Republican. Given President Bush's falling approval ratings in Tennessee (34% vs. 42% a year ago), the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, and dissatisfaction with response to Hurricane Katrina, Tennessee - once solidly Republican - may be shifting toward the "blue" end of the spectrum. Also, in the fall of 2004 - when President Bush won handily - some 35% of Tennesseans identified themselves as Republicans, 29% as Democrats, and 23% as independents. This spring the results are 31% Republican, 33% Democrat, and 22% independent.

The poll also found higher favorables for Hillary Clinton and Al Gore (both at 42%) than for Rudy Giuliani (39%) and John McCain (34%). Both Clinton and Gore, however, received higher unfavorables than favorables (44% and 43% respectively).

On the war, 66% disapprove of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, 57% oppose sending more troops, and 56% support a Congressional resolution opposing troop increases. (54% oppose military action against Iran, 28% favor it.)

On domestic issues, 27% said that health care is the number one problem facing the state, followed by 21% who said education was the number one problem. Crime (7%), the economy (4%) and taxes (4%) round out the top five responses besides "other" (19%).

Some other interesting findings:

• 58% favor raising the federal minimum wage to $7.25, and 18% more favor raising Tennessee's minimum wage to $8.25.



• 43% rate the state's economy as "good" or "excellent", 43% say it's fair, and only 12% say it's poor.



• 67% approve of the governor's job performance, while only 50% approve of the state legislature's performance.



• 28% say they have not heard enough about Barak Obama to form an opinion v. only 2.3% for Hillary Clinton. (Curiously, 17.8% say they haven't heard enough about Edwards, who ran in the 2004 presidential primaries and ran for vice president in the 2004 general election.)



• 60% believe global warming is having a serious impact now v. 28% who do not. (48% believe that Al Gore deserves a Nobel Prize v. 36% who don't.)



• 54% believe the law should allow illegal immigrants to become citizens, but only 40% support a guest worker program.



• 31% say illegal immigration is an "extremely important" issue to them personally, 28% say it is "very important", 24% say it is "moderately important", and 9.2% say it is "slightly important." Only 5.6% say it is "not important at all."



• 57% support the death penalty as the maximum penalty for murder, while 32.3% believe it should be life imprisonment with no parole. 42% approve of the governor's recent suspension of the death penalty for further investigation of lethal injection methods. 31% disapprove.



• 65% believe medical malpractice lawsuits should have to pass a review by a board of medical experts. 45% believe the state should limit punitive awards in malpractice cases.

According to their website, the "MTSU Poll's mission is to provide independent, non-partisan, and unbiased public opinion data regarding major social, political, and ethical issues affecting Tennessee.

Surveys are conducted twice yearly under the direction of faculty specialists in public opinion research in accordance with scientifically validated polling standards. Students serve as poll interviewers as an integral part of their training in mass communication."

About the most recent poll:

The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 6-17, 2007 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 554 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± about 4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups.

The sample varied somewhat from the U.S. Census Bureau's latest available projections for age, race and gender proportions within the state. Such variation commonly occurs because certain demographic groups are more difficult to contact. The data were thus weighted to more closely match Census projections for these demographics.