Candidates Facing South

The presidential primary candidates are facing their first tests in the South ahead of Mega Tuesday on Feb. 5th.

The outcome of South Carolina's Republican primary last week was a disappointment for Huckabee, who found little Southern Comfort with his Bible thumping, Confederate flag waving campaign. John McCain edged out a win, and goes full throttle with NH and SC afterburners on to engage Romney in Florida. Fred Thompson drew a "line in the sand" that not many voters crossed, and ambled off the stage to the boos and catcalls of Tennessee supporters and voters who had already voted early for him.

Many polls had McCain and Huckabee close or virtually tied going in, and both had big surges in the days leading up to the primary. But Huckabee leveled off before McCain, who pushed through for the win. According to some analysts, undecided voters decided it in the voting booths at the end.

The Democrats face their first Southern test tomorrow in South Carolina's Democratic primary. All the polls show Obama in the lead, some more substantially than others. The most recent, a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll of 811 likely voters concluded yesterday, shows Obama (38%) with a 13 point lead over Clinton (25%) and Edwards at 21% with only 7% undecided. But the poll also shows Obama's lead shrinking (down from 43% on 1/22) with support moving to Edwards (up from 15% on 1/22) and Clinton holding steady.

This suggests that the infighting between Clinton and Obama is helping Edwards, who had a good showing in the SC debate that positioned him as the self-styled "adult" in the campaign and got him some much needed media attention. Settling for whatever she can get there, Clinton has conceded SC to Obama and moved on to campaign in California for Feb 5th. Edwards sees SC as a "must win" or at least a "must have a strong showing" and is still there making his case in BBQ joints and diners all around the state. Obama maintains a commanding lead among African-American voters, who represent about half of the SC Democratic primary voters, and also among women and younger voters. Obama also has a slight lead among seniors, suggesting an across the board appeal that will be tough for Edwards to overcome. The closing arguments are in, and voters will render their verdict tomorrow.

Unlike Thompson, Edwards has not drawn a line in the South Carolina sand, and indications are that he will likely do better than some expected and that he's in it through at least Feb. 5th. Beyond that will depend on how well he does then (and possibly on how badly Clinton and Obama beat each other up). Either way, speculation is that he will get as many delegates as he can and if he isn't the nominee he will do some horse trading, possibly at a brokered convention in Denver.

Florida's primary next Tuesday is turning in to quite the spectacle, with Rudy Giuliani racing his campaign bus around the track at Daytona International Speedway and Mitt Romney caught on camera posing with black kids while rapping "who let the dogs out?," an awkward moment to say the least.

The polls are showing a close race between McCain and Romney, with McCain showing a surge after NH and SC and Romney, who skipped SC, showing a boost after Michigan and Nevada. Huckabee is out of gas and out of money and hoping to pick up a few Thompson stragglers in Florida, but it appears he will be finished after Feb. 5th. Giuliani's "one state strategy" isn't working out for him, and he will be competing with Huckabee for third place in Florida after peaking out late in November. It's not clear what's after Florida for Giuliani -- probably not a NASCAR ride, but maybe Fred Thompson can get him a recurring bit part on Law and Order.