Six Southern states to watch for 2010 legislative and gubernatorial races
Labor Day has passed, which is typically the time that people in this country close up their grills, turn in their pool passes -- and start paying attention to politics.
The national focus is on the predicted big gains for Republicans in the U.S. Senate and House. But a critical third area where Republicans are expected to pull off victories -- or at least chip away at Democratic majorities -- may have even more long-term political importance: governorships and state legislatures.
The gubernatorial and state leg races are always important -- deciding the fate of key programs, and setting the political tone in states. But they're especially important in 2010, because they will determine who's in charge of redistricting -- the (usually) once-in-a-decade redrawing of political lines that comes after the release of decennial Census data.
These redistricting decisions are especially important in 2010, with Southern states growing in size and political clout, and looming debates over the Voting Rights Act and the South's increasingly diverse demographics.
There are a number of interesting 2010 battlegrounds developing in the South, all of which will play into redistricting battles in the coming years:
STATE LEGISLATURES: There are at least three important states to watch here:
* Alabama: In 2010, the Democrats' legacy support in this conservative state faces one of its most formidable challenges yet. Their thin current advantages in the Senate (20-15) and House (60-45) are at big risk of being swept away in this GOP-friendly year.
* North Carolina: Democrats have more to work with here than in Alabama, with a stronger blue trend in state politics and slightly bigger margins in the Senate (30-20) and House (68-52). But whatever happened in NC two years ago, the state is feeling the full force of GOP counter-revolt in 2010: Republicans are winning the state leg generic ballot 49-41 [pdf] for state legislative races. Independents tell pollsters they plan to vote GOP by a whopping 52-19 spread -- numbers which, if they hold, would almost certainly mean Republicans taking over.
* Tennessee: Because Republicans only have a razor-thin majority here (19/14 in the senate; 50/48 house) and Democrats do well in state politics here, the Tennessee leg is still rated as just "lean Republican." But if the 2010 GOP wave turns into a tsunami, watch for Republicans to strengthen their hold.
GOVERNORS: Like the legislatures, most of the races are sifting into the Democrat and Republican columns. But there are at least three gubernatorial races to watch:
* Florida: Democrats lead Florida in party registration; Republicans rule state politics; and the state is expected to pick up a Congressional seat. Add into this volatile mix a governor's race that's still rated as a toss-up by 538.com, with either Dem Alex Sink (wife of 2002 Dem gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride) or Republican Rick Scott (former exec of for-profit hospital chain HCA) poised to steer one of the country's most important states.
* Georgia: Usually a Republican stronghold, former governor Roy Barnes is giving the Democrats at least a shot in the vacuum created by Gov. Sonny Perdue's retirement. Republicans clearly have the upper hand -- especially in a year like this -- but if Barnes can summon his old magic and the state's rapidly changing demographics move the electoral needle, this one could be interesting. Georgia is also poised to gain another seat in Congress.
* South Carolina: Republicans will win this one, no question. But Nikki Haley's fascinating campaign will be an interesting barometer of the Tea Party's electoral strength and how decisively she can command the GOP majority. Like Georgia, South Carolina is projected to add a seat to its U.S. House delegation after the 2010 Census results come in.
In each of these states and others in the South, the question won't be just who takes power of the governor's mansion and state legislatures. Especially for redistricting, just cutting into the other side's majority -- enough to potentially pick off a member of the other side in voting for a redistricting plan -- could shape the course of state politics for decades.
The national focus is on the predicted big gains for Republicans in the U.S. Senate and House. But a critical third area where Republicans are expected to pull off victories -- or at least chip away at Democratic majorities -- may have even more long-term political importance: governorships and state legislatures.
The gubernatorial and state leg races are always important -- deciding the fate of key programs, and setting the political tone in states. But they're especially important in 2010, because they will determine who's in charge of redistricting -- the (usually) once-in-a-decade redrawing of political lines that comes after the release of decennial Census data.
These redistricting decisions are especially important in 2010, with Southern states growing in size and political clout, and looming debates over the Voting Rights Act and the South's increasingly diverse demographics.
There are a number of interesting 2010 battlegrounds developing in the South, all of which will play into redistricting battles in the coming years:
STATE LEGISLATURES: There are at least three important states to watch here:
* Alabama: In 2010, the Democrats' legacy support in this conservative state faces one of its most formidable challenges yet. Their thin current advantages in the Senate (20-15) and House (60-45) are at big risk of being swept away in this GOP-friendly year.
* North Carolina: Democrats have more to work with here than in Alabama, with a stronger blue trend in state politics and slightly bigger margins in the Senate (30-20) and House (68-52). But whatever happened in NC two years ago, the state is feeling the full force of GOP counter-revolt in 2010: Republicans are winning the state leg generic ballot 49-41 [pdf] for state legislative races. Independents tell pollsters they plan to vote GOP by a whopping 52-19 spread -- numbers which, if they hold, would almost certainly mean Republicans taking over.
* Tennessee: Because Republicans only have a razor-thin majority here (19/14 in the senate; 50/48 house) and Democrats do well in state politics here, the Tennessee leg is still rated as just "lean Republican." But if the 2010 GOP wave turns into a tsunami, watch for Republicans to strengthen their hold.
GOVERNORS: Like the legislatures, most of the races are sifting into the Democrat and Republican columns. But there are at least three gubernatorial races to watch:
* Florida: Democrats lead Florida in party registration; Republicans rule state politics; and the state is expected to pick up a Congressional seat. Add into this volatile mix a governor's race that's still rated as a toss-up by 538.com, with either Dem Alex Sink (wife of 2002 Dem gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride) or Republican Rick Scott (former exec of for-profit hospital chain HCA) poised to steer one of the country's most important states.
* Georgia: Usually a Republican stronghold, former governor Roy Barnes is giving the Democrats at least a shot in the vacuum created by Gov. Sonny Perdue's retirement. Republicans clearly have the upper hand -- especially in a year like this -- but if Barnes can summon his old magic and the state's rapidly changing demographics move the electoral needle, this one could be interesting. Georgia is also poised to gain another seat in Congress.
* South Carolina: Republicans will win this one, no question. But Nikki Haley's fascinating campaign will be an interesting barometer of the Tea Party's electoral strength and how decisively she can command the GOP majority. Like Georgia, South Carolina is projected to add a seat to its U.S. House delegation after the 2010 Census results come in.
In each of these states and others in the South, the question won't be just who takes power of the governor's mansion and state legislatures. Especially for redistricting, just cutting into the other side's majority -- enough to potentially pick off a member of the other side in voting for a redistricting plan -- could shape the course of state politics for decades.
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Chris Kromm
Chris Kromm is executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South.