Key Southern elections to watch in 2025

Key state and local elections will unfold across the South next week, including a chance for Democrats to take control of the executive and legislative branches in Virginia and move progressive policy at the state level.

This November will also see elections for two seats on the critical Public Service Commission in Georgia, which shapes the state’s energy policy, as well as mayors of major Southern cities with millions of residents.

The following are key races Facing South and the Institute for Southern Studies are following in the South in 2025:

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR

In 11 of Virginia’s last 12 elections for governor, the race has been won by the opposite party of who occupies the White House. Virginia is also unique in that a governor can’t run for two consecutive terms. This puts Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger in a strong position to become the first woman governor of Virginia next week, flipping an office held by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin since 2022.

Spanberger, a former Congressional representative, faces another woman candidate, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, and has focused on the economy, a resonant subject given federal job cuts and the recent government shutdown. The political analysis site State Navigate gives Spanberger, who has largely embraced a progressive policy agenda, a 98% chance of winning.

VIRGINIA HOUSE OF DELEGATES

If Spanberger wins Virginia’s governor’s race, Democrats could be poised to win a trifecta in the state. They currently hold majorities in the state House and Senate, the only chambers in the South where that’s the case. Senate seats aren’t up for election; Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 edge in the House, which State Navigate projects Dems will either maintain or build on. The last time Democrats held a trifecta in Virginia (2019-2021), they passed a state Voting Rights Act, a clean energy bill, and other progressive measures. Issues that could be in play under a new Democratic regime: enshrining abortion rights in the constitution, expanding legal marijuana, and repealing the state’s anti-union “right-to-work” law.

VIRGINIA ATTORNEY GENERAL AND LT. GOVERNOR

Republicans are spending more money on Virginia’s Attorney General race than they are for governor: more than $10 million in October alone. That’s because, while incumbent Jason Miyares (R) isn’t very popular, his Democratic opponent, former state delegate Jay Jones, has been hit with negative press over violent text messages he sent in 2022 about GOP politicians. The race is viewed as a toss-up. In the Lt. Governor race, Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi appears to be in a strong position against GOP talk-radio host John Reid, who the current Virginia governor asked to leave the race earlier this year after sexually explicit photos were unearthed on one of Reid’s social media accounts.

GEORGIA PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Two seats on Georgia’s Public Service Commission, a body which regulates utilities and shapes state energy policy, are up for grabs this year. The five-member commission has been dominated by Republicans for more than two decades, but in this year’s elections — which come after two years of delay due to redistricting battles — Democrats see an opening. Georgia Power, the state’s regulated energy company, has raised rates on consumers (with commission approval) six times in the last three years. “These two Republicans that are running right now never once said, ‘No’ — not one time — to a rate hike request,” said Democratic state party chair Charlie Bailey.

MAYORAL CONTESTS

One of 2025’s mayoral races has already been decided: In New Orleans, Helena Moreno — a former TV journalist and progressive Latina city council member — secured more than 55% of the vote in the October primary, winning the race outright.

A few other mayoral races on Facing South’s radar and highlighted by Bolts Magazine, an indispensable resource for following state and local politics:

Atlanta, Georgia: Incumbent mayor and centrist Democrat Andre Dickens is favored to win reelection. He’s been an an advocate for building affordable housing and expanding public transportation; his avid support for the “Cop City” police training center has put him in opposition to many on the left.

Charlotte, North Carolina: Democrat Vi Lyles is favored in her effort to seek a fifth term running against Republican real estate agent Terrie Donovan. President Trump singled out Lyles for attack over the stabbing death of Iryna Zarutska on a light-rail train, a focal point of right-wing national media.

Miami, Florida: A judge blocked an effort by local officials to postpone the election and give themselves another year in office, so the crowded contest will proceed with candidates including Xavier Suerez, a Republican former mayor and father of the current mayor; Emilio Gonzalez, a GOP former city manager; and Democrat Eileen Higgins.

CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTIONS

Three Southern special congressional elections have already been held in 2025: In Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, Republicans won in seats previously held by GOP lawmakers; and in Virginia’s 11th District, a Democrat won a Democratic seat.

Two congressional special elections remain. In Texas’ 18th Congressional District, in which four-fifths of the voters are people of color, a field of 16 candidates — led by a group of mostly Black, relatively young Democrats — are vying for office. The crowded field means the winner likely won’t be known until run-off in early 2026.

On December 2, voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District will choose between Democrat Aftyn Behn, a member of the Tennessee House in Nashville, and Republican Matt Van Epps, a commissioner at the Tennessee Department of General Services. Cook Political Report rates the district as “Solid Republican.”

BALLOT INITIATIVES

It’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote in Texas, but, as with other Republican-led states, that didn’t stop Republicans from putting Proposition 16, a citizenship voting requirement amendment, on the ballot.

Texas is also considering two propositions of note regarding judges. Prop 3 would require judges to deny bail to defendants accused of certain felonies, a reversal of the anti-bail movement that had gained steam in earlier years. Prop 12 targets judges through the commission on judicial conduct, increasing the commission’s power to suspend judges; it comes after state Republicans have targeted local judges with which they disagree.

At the local level, a measure in Knoxville, Tennessee, aims to increase sales tax by .5%, with about one-fifth of the revenue earmarked for affordable housing, while Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) in N.C. will vote on a one-point increase for transportation and a property tax increase in Austin, Texas would fund services for the homeless. Bolts reports that dozens of Texas schools districts are considering bonds to fund schools, the biggest being $1.3 billion in Dallas County.